Date of Award

2018

Document Type

Dissertation

Degree Name

Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

Department

Education

Abstract

The purpose of this quantitative study was to determine if the outcome of two different types of referendums, operating fund and construction, could be more accurately predicted by using certain predictor variables. Furthermore, if the outcome could be more accurately predicted, which predictor variables were statistically significant in that prediction, thus allowing school district leaders to more precisely target specific variables. The two research questions studied were the same question applied separately to an operating fund referendum and a construction referendum, and centered on the following variables and their ability to predict the outcome of each referendum: Average daily membership, tax rate prior to proposed referendum, proposed tax rate increase, percent of farmland, time of election cycle, socioeconomic status, location (urban, suburban, and rural) and percent of voter turnout. These variables were selected because they are the most evident in the evaluation and consideration of pursuing a referendum. These variables are a matter of public record and, as such, were ascertained from the appropriate government agencies. These variables were then assigned a number for a statistical test of logistic regression. Descriptive statistics were then compared and contrasted. Inferential statistics were also analyzed for goodness of fit, prediction rate, and statistical significance. The Hosmer and Lemeshow test of goodness of fit showed this study model to be a good model with a significance value of .53. Inferential statistics also showed that the test conducted increased the accuracy of the prediction by 7.8% for an operating fund referendum and 24.10% for a construction referendum. Two variables proved statistically significant for each type of referendum, with one of those predictor variables being statistically significant for both. Implications of the results of this study suggest that school district leaders should analyze all data points prior to making the difficult decision regarding placing a referendum on the ballot.

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